ISLAMABAD: Experts at a consultative dialogue have said that Pakistan’s recently introduced draft Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) and Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) 2025-35 needs to be more inclusive, transparent, and participatory with ownership of all federating units to ensure equitable, just and people-centric power sector development.
The dialogue, titled: “Critical Analysis of IGCEP and TSEP 2025-35: Inclusive Planning for a Just Energy Transition”, was organized by Pakistan Renewable Energy Coalition (PREC) and the Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy (ACJCE). The event brought together federal and provincial governments, policymakers, civil society, industry representatives, and investors to analyze the draft Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) and Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP).
Mr. Zeeshan Ashfaq, Chief Executive Officer of Renewables First, explained that the IGCEP marked a shift from decades of ad-hoc power sector planning to an evidence-based planning process. While highlighting the key indicators of the successive iterations, he mentioned that the key purpose of power system planning is to meet the power and energy demand of the country while ensuring system reliability and achieving this at the least possible cost. The main critique on most IGCEP versions has been the capacity additions that came from the committed projects, leaving limited to no room for projects that are optimized on the least-cost basis. However, an important trend in successive IGCEPs is how the quantum of committed projects has been reduced over time Earlier IGCEPs included a very high level of committed projects up to 22GW, which has now been rationalized with latest IGCEP cutting commitments down to just 6 GW.
Criticizing the technical framework, SDPI’s Energy Economy expert Dr Khalid Waleed said that IGCEP 2025 relied excessively on top-down econometric models, ignored electric vehicle projections despite national policy, and treated battery energy storage systems narrowly. He warned that the plan overlooked climate impact on hydropower, failed to assess tariff implications, and did not account for the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could undermine industrial competitiveness.
Zain Moulvi, Member of Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy (ACJCE) mentioned that IGCEP 2025-35 has overestimated the GDP growth rates given Pakistan’s recent demand growth. He further mentioned that IGCEP undermines the impact of distributed generation, does not account for the policy measures under IMF commitments, lack of climate stress testing, lack of least cost assessment, and insufficient transparency. He particularly cautioned that ignoring Balochistan’s renewable energy potential and climate hazards in hydro costing would perpetuate regional disparities.
Mr. Badar Alam, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), stressed that national energy planning should not be confined to “closed and cloistered offices in Islamabad.” He noted that electricity is not merely a technical or financial issue, but a question of public rights, equity, and least-cost principles, which have often been violated in past policies. He stressed that any power sector development plan should put people and community as the center of development.
Dr Fiaz Chaudhry, Chairman of National Grid Company and Senior Advisor at Lahore University of Management Sciences, said though imperfect, IGCEP 2025 is a progressive step towards energy reforms. He said that least-cost planning principles allowed for meeting the same energy demand with $17 billion less investment compared to earlier estimates. He highlighted ambiguities in the past regulations and assured that stakeholder feedback would be incorporated into the final plan.
Mr. Sahibzada Najeeb Ullah, Additional Secretary, Energy Department Balochistan, lamenting the exclusion of Balochistan from federal consultations, warned that it will harbor resentment in the province because of its vast solar and renewable potential.
Experts for addressing policy inconsistencies, transparency and inclusivity in Pakistan’s draft Integrated System Plan (ISP)
