ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will import 88 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from Qatar in 2026, of which 24 cargoes will be diverted to the international market under the Annual Delivery Plan (ADP) agreed with Doha, according to official documents.
The diversions will take place under the Net Proceeds Differential (NPD) clause. However, the government has decided not to divert any LNG cargoes in January and February 2026 due to peak winter demand. In January, Pakistan will receive 11 LNG cargoes from Qatar and one cargo from Italy’s ENI, taking the total to 12 cargoes to meet heightened gas requirements.
In February, Pakistan will import eight cargoes from Qatar, with no NPD diversions planned. Diversion of term LNG cargoes will begin from March and continue through December 2026.
Under the agreed plan, Qatar will divert Pakistan’s LNG cargoes as follows: one cargo in March, four in April, two in May, one in June, three in July, two in August, four in September, three in October, three in November and one in December. In addition, 11 LNG cargoes from ENI — one each month from February to December — will also be diverted to the international market.
In total, 35 LNG cargoes worth over $1 billion are expected to be diverted during calendar year 2026. A further 10 ENI cargoes are planned for diversion in 2027.
Under the NPD mechanism, if a diverted cargo fetches a higher price than Pakistan’s term contract rate, the entire profit goes to Qatar. If the cargo is sold below the term price, the loss is borne by Pakistan State Oil (PSO). In contrast, ENI cargoes are diverted under a negotiated arrangement with Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL), under which both profits and losses are shared.
According to the import plan for 2026, Pakistan will receive 12 cargoes in January, eight in February, eight in March, six in April, eight in May, eight in June, seven in July, seven in August, six in September, six in October, four in November and nine in December.
The government has also decided that it will not absorb any losses arising from LNG diversions under the NPD clause. Any losses due to low international prices will be passed on to RLNG consumers, including RLNG-based power plants, export-oriented industries, the CNG sector and domestic RLNG users. Authorities clarified that neither the government nor PSO will bear these losses.
Despite the diversions, officials said Pakistan will still face a surplus of 13 LNG cargoes in 2026 due to a sharp decline of over 400 mmcfd in national gas consumption. Initially, the surplus was estimated at 48 cargoes, but the successful diversion of 35 cargoes is expected to provide substantial financial relief.
Based on an average term price of $30 million per cargo, Pakistan is projected to save around $1.05 billion in foreign exchange. Reduced LNG inflows will also allow the restoration of locally produced gas that had been curtailed due to high line-pack pressure in the transmission system. This will enable consumers to receive indigenous gas at about Rs1,000 per MMBTU, compared to around Rs3,500 per MMBTU for RLNG.
While gas curtailment is not expected to end completely, it is projected to decline from 310 mmcfd to around 100 mmcfd next year.
Pakistan remains bound by long-term commitments to import 120 LNG cargoes annually — 108 from Qatar and 12 from ENI — even as demand has weakened due to slow GDP growth and high industrial input costs.
Currently, the country imports around 10 LNG cargoes per month, including nine from Qatar (five priced at 13.37 per cent of Brent and four at 10.2 per cent of Brent) and one from ENI at 12.14 per cent of Brent.
According to the Petroleum Division, the ENI–PLL agreement has emerged as a major source of relief for the gas system and the national exchequer. Between 2025 and 2027, the arrangement is expected to generate combined savings and profits of $880–900 million.
In 2025 alone, 11 ENI cargoes have already been diverted, saving $300 million and generating $45 million in shared profits. For 2026, another 11 diversions are expected to save $230 million and yield $45–50 million in profits, while 10 diversions planned for 2027 are projected to generate $290–300 million, completing a three-year financial windfall.
Story by Khalid Mustafa
