Pakistan’s cumulative installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is estimated to have surpassed 27 gigawatts (GW), driven largely by rapid imports of solar modules from China and strong uptake in residential and commercial markets, according to analysis by energy think tank Renewables First.
Figures shared by Renewables First show that Pakistan imported a cumulative 51.5 GW of solar modules from China by November 2025. Solar imports have accelerated sharply over the past two fiscal years, with cumulative imports reaching 48 GW by June 2025, at a total cost of more than $2 billion.
Despite the surge in installations, Pakistan lacks official data on total installed solar capacity due to limitations in tracking behind-the-meter and off-grid systems. Official statistics only cover net-metering installations, which stood at 6.8 GW as of September 2025.
Rabia Babar, Manager Data for Energy & Climate at Renewables First, told pv magazine that estimates suggest 27 GW to 33 GW of solar capacity has been deployed across Pakistan, including net-metering, residential, commercial and industrial (C&I), and agricultural segments.
“The widespread uptake of solar is increasingly visible in declining midday grid demand compared to previous years, followed by sharp evening demand spikes—patterns typically observed in power systems with high solar penetration,” Babar said.
She noted that residential consumers account for the largest share of solar adoption, while uptake among C&I users is also strong. Looking ahead, Babar expects deployments to accelerate further in 2026, driven by residential, C&I and agricultural demand. Continued imports of Chinese solar panels in the current fiscal year, she added, point to sustained growth in solar adoption.
In contrast, no new utility-scale solar projects came online in Pakistan during the past year, with cumulative utility-scale solar capacity estimated at around 780 megawatts (MW).
Babar also highlighted the potential impact of battery storage, noting that improved access to solar-plus-storage systems could influence consumer behaviour in 2026, making such solutions increasingly attractive for both households and businesses.
However, she cautioned that proposals to shift Pakistan’s net-metering framework to a net-billing model could create uncertainty for investors. “New users may face reduced incentives, which could affect confidence and financing for residential and C&I solar projects,” she said, adding that clear government policies and timelines would be essential to ensure a smooth market transition.
Story by Patrick Jowett
