ISLAMABAD: In a bid to curb rising electricity tariffs and manage looming power shortages, the government is preparing to significantly increase domestic natural gas supply to the power sector, as imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains unavailable and summer demand surges.
According to informed sources, gas supply to power plants is expected to nearly double—from the current 85–90 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to around 160–170 mmcfd by the end of April or early May. An additional 20–25 mmcfd may be diverted from the CNG sector, subject to the government’s ability to manage political resistance.
Efforts are underway on a war footing following concerns raised by Power Minister Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari, who warned that failure to divert gas to the power sector could result in steep fuel cost increases or widespread loadshedding. The Power Division has proposed reallocating gas from sectors including residential consumers, CNG, and fertiliser.
However, diverting gas from domestic users—affecting over seven million households—could trigger political backlash. “It is a choice between the uproar of 7 million gas consumers or 30 million power consumers,” an official quoted the minister as saying.
While the fertiliser sector is expected to receive priority to avoid supply disruptions and curb smuggling—driven by a significant price gap between locally produced and imported urea—some plants may still operate on an alternating basis to balance demand.
The situation is further complicated by rising fuel costs. The fuel cost adjustment (FCA) for February stood at Rs1.42 per unit and is projected to increase in the coming months. Without RLNG, approximately 5,000MW of efficient power generation capacity in پنجاب becomes either idle or significantly more expensive, as alternatives like high-speed diesel and furnace oil raise generation costs substantially.
Furnace oil prices have more than doubled since February, with generation costs ranging between Rs35–45 per unit. In comparison, the cost differential between RLNG and high-speed diesel stands at Rs20–54 per unit, making fuel substitution an expensive option.
The issue has been escalated to the National Coordination and Management Council, headed by General Zafar Iqbal, to ensure optimal electricity supply to key economic sectors at manageable costs.
Additional gas availability has been supported by new infrastructure, including a pipeline connecting the Bettani gas field in Lakki Marwat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to Punjab.
Meanwhile, the government has already initiated load management measures, including at least two hours of daily loadshedding, which is expected to increase—particularly during nighttime when solar generation drops and grid demand peaks. Early market closures have also been enforced to conserve energy.
Although water availability has improved, hydropower output remains uncertain due to operational challenges faced by WAPDA at Tarbela Dam and the continued shutdown of the 969MW Neelum-Jhelum hydropower plant.
With summer peak demand projected to rise to 27,000–28,000MW—up from the current 14,000MW—the government is likely to enforce two to three hours of daily loadshedding alongside conservation strategies.
Furnace oil stocks currently exceed 500,000 tonnes, sufficient for over a month of peak demand, but the high cost remains a significant burden on the power sector.
As the energy crisis deepens, authorities face tough choices to balance affordability, supply stability, and political considerations.
Story by Khaleeq Kiani
