# Can Global Oil Stocks Withstand Another Six Months of War?
The global oil market is facing a growing test of resilience as prolonged conflict continues to disrupt supplies and deplete inventories, raising concerns over whether available stocks can withstand another six months of war.
The head of Saudi Aramco estimates that the world has lost around **2.6 billion barrels of oil supply** since the conflict began, making it the largest cumulative supply disruption on record apart from the 1979 Iranian Revolution, according to Reuters calculations.
The lost supply is equivalent to roughly **25 days of global consumption**, based on pre-war demand of about 103 million barrels per day (bpd). However, weaker demand in China in recent months has reduced overall global consumption.
Most analysts estimate the current global supply shortfall at around **5 million bpd**, significantly below Aramco’s estimate that Gulf disruptions have removed approximately 11 million bpd from the market. The deficit could have widened in July after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Kazakhstan’s CPC pipeline, which carries around 1.8 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the West’s main energy watchdog, announced in March that it would release **400 million barrels from emergency reserves** to help offset supply disruptions. The agency maintains that global oil inventories remain substantial.
The IEA was established in 1974 in response to the oil crisis triggered by the Arab oil embargo. Its emergency stocks comprise government-held and commercial inventories, which together amount to approximately **1.5 billion barrels**.
At the current estimated supply deficit of 5 million bpd, that volume would theoretically cover around **300 days of disrupted supply**. However, the IEA cannot directly order the release of commercial inventories, much of which is held by refiners for operational requirements.
Government-controlled stocks amount to around **900 million barrels**, theoretically sufficient to cover the current deficit for approximately 180 days. The IEA has said it remains prepared to release additional supplies if the situation deteriorates.
However, the precise composition and availability of IEA stocks are not publicly disclosed. Around one-third of the remaining government-held reserves are believed to be located in the United States.
### US Reserve Faces Constraints
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to its lowest level since January 1983. The Government Accountability Office warned in May that parts of the SPR’s infrastructure were deteriorating and estimated that around a quarter of the reserves might no longer be readily available.
Analysts at Rapidan Energy estimate that more than **100 million barrels** could effectively be unavailable for immediate release.
If only around 200 million barrels of accessible SPR stocks remain, the US reserve could cover approximately **40 days of the current global supply shortfall**.
A further coordinated release by the IEA could therefore prove difficult. Christian Egeland of Energy Aspects said another major release was unlikely because many countries had already drawn down their inventories considerably.
The depletion of global inventories has reduced the market’s safety cushion against further supply shocks, increasing the risk of sharp oil-price increases, according to Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics.
### Refined Fuels Under Pressure
The pressure is particularly acute in refined petroleum products. Global inventories of **diesel and jet fuel are currently near the bottom of their five-year range**, according to Morgan Stanley.
Survo Sarkar of DBS Bank said the conflicts had damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, disproportionately affecting supplies of diesel and jet fuel.
The IEA, however, maintains that total global oil inventories—including commercial stocks, the US SPR, Chinese reserves and oil currently in transit—remain relatively comfortable.
But not all reported inventories represent an immediately usable buffer. Oil held on tankers, for example, may already have been sold and simply be awaiting delivery.
### China Holds a Key Reserve
China’s oil reserves are another major uncertainty because Beijing does not disclose the precise size of its strategic stockpile.
Energy Aspects estimates that China held nearly **1.7 billion barrels of crude in July**, although estimates from consultancies range from around 1 billion to 1.7 billion barrels. China also holds undisclosed volumes of refined fuels and petrochemical products.
If the higher estimate of 1.7 billion barrels is accurate, China could theoretically cover its pre-war crude imports through the **Strait of Hormuz—around 5.5 million bpd—for almost a year**.
That would place China, alongside Japan, among the major economies with relatively comfortable oil buffers.
Nevertheless, the overall picture remains uncertain. While headline global inventories appear sizeable, the amount of oil that can actually be released quickly is considerably smaller.
With inventories steadily being drawn down and refined-fuel stocks already under pressure, another six months of major supply disruptions could leave the global oil market with a much thinner safety margin—and significantly greater exposure to price spikes.
