ISLAMABAD: In a major diplomatic and legal setback for India and a significant victory for Pakistan, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague has ruled that the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 remains fully in force, rejecting India’s unilateral decision to place the agreement in “abeyance”.
The PCA on Monday issued its Award on Treaty Status along with a binding Order on Interim Measures. In a unanimous decision, the tribunal affirmed the continued validity of the treaty and directed India to comply with its obligations under the agreement.
The court also ordered restrictions on certain construction activities at the disputed Ratle Hydroelectric Plant in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), including barring India from concreting parts of the dam wall and power intake structure above specified levels.
The ruling follows the PCA’s earlier decision in May, when it upheld the continued operation of the treaty and rejected the notion that India could unilaterally suspend it. The latest decision further reinforces the legal status of the decades-old water-sharing agreement.
The IWT, signed by India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960, governs the distribution and use of the waters of the Indus River system between the two countries. The agreement has remained operational for more than six decades, including during periods of severe political and military tensions.
India announced in April 2025 that it was placing the treaty in abeyance following the Pahalgam attack, while Pakistan repeatedly warned that any attempt to deprive it of its agreed water share would have serious consequences. Islamabad has also complained that New Delhi has stopped providing certain water-related data required under the treaty.
Court rejects India’s legal arguments
The Hague-based tribunal reaffirmed the principle of pacta sunt servanda — that international agreements must be honoured — and concluded that India had no legal basis under treaty law or customary international law to unilaterally suspend or terminate the IWT.
The tribunal rejected arguments based on sovereignty, allegations of cross-border terrorism and fundamental changes in circumstances as grounds for suspending the treaty.
“India must observe its obligations under the Treaty, including those relating to the design and operation of its hydro-electric projects on the Western Rivers,” the court said.
Under the interim measures order, India cannot carry out specified concreting work at the Ratle project until 90 days after the neutral expert issues a decision. The neutral expert’s final decision is expected around July 2027.
The court also directed India to continue reporting on the project’s construction schedule for a specified period following the neutral expert’s decision.
Pakistan welcomes ruling
Pakistan welcomed the PCA decision, with the Information Ministry saying India’s unilateral move to place the treaty in abeyance had not been permitted either under the agreement or international law.
“The government of Pakistan would now be giving careful consideration to the details of the award and decide how these may best assist in finding a pathway back to the parties’ engagement under the treaty,” the ministry said.
It added that the ruling reinforced the binding legal obligations of both countries under the IWT.
The government noted, however, that it had initially seen the PCA’s press release announcing the award and interim measures, while the complete text of the decision had not yet been published.
India rejects PCA jurisdiction
India rejected the ruling, maintaining that its decision to place the treaty in abeyance remains unchanged.
“This so-called Court of Arbitration has no jurisdiction whatsoever to pronounce on India’s sovereign decisions, now or in the future,” India’s Foreign Ministry said, adding that the ruling would have no effect on its actions concerning projects being undertaken by the country.
Experts warn of growing tensions
Water experts said the latest development could increase diplomatic pressure on India to comply with international legal obligations, while continued non-compliance could further strain relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Former Pakistan Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah said Islamabad should intensify diplomatic efforts to persuade India to honour the treaty and could eventually take the matter to the United Nations.
“Pakistan should build diplomatic pressure on India to honour the Indus Waters Treaty,” Shah said, while cautioning that international diplomatic processes could take time.
He also warned that proposed hydropower projects on the Chenab River could have implications for water availability in Pakistan, particularly for agriculture in Punjab, if downstream flows were significantly affected.
“If India continues dishonouring court decisions, it would be pushing Pakistan towards a war,” Shah warned.
According to Shah, India could also face pressure from international financial institutions, including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, if it sought external financing for hydropower projects.
The latest ruling is therefore likely to intensify the diplomatic and legal dispute over the Indus Waters Treaty, with the agreement’s future becoming an increasingly important issue in already strained Pakistan-India relations.
Story by Zafar Bhutta
