ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has decided to seek three LNG cargoes from Qatar during October as uncertainty over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persists, while the government prepares to engage Iranian authorities to facilitate the safe passage of LNG vessels.
The move comes after Qatar Energy extended its force majeure on LNG supplies to Pakistan until November 4, raising concerns that disruptions could continue into the winter and affect deliveries under Pakistan’s long-term LNG supply agreements.
The government is racing to secure sufficient LNG supplies ahead of peak winter demand, particularly in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the northern areas.
Officials said Pakistan managed to secure two LNG cargoes from Qatar in September after taking both Iranian and US authorities into confidence. The first cargo arrived around September 10, followed by another on September 23.
Securing three cargoes for October, however, could prove more challenging amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of a broader US-Iran peace arrangement.
Spot LNG Purchases Still on Hold
For now, the government is focusing on securing the three October cargoes from Qatar while maintaining diplomatic channels concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan has not yet decided to enter the spot LNG market, despite the possibility of supply shortages. Spot LNG is currently estimated at around $28-$30 per MMBtu, with a single cargo potentially costing about $100 million.
Officials have expressed concern that large-scale purchases of expensive spot LNG could place additional pressure on Pakistan’s finances, particularly amid existing external financing and energy-sector challenges.
The timing is becoming increasingly critical as temperatures have already declined across northern parts of the country, pushing up demand for regasified LNG (RLNG).
According to gas system data as of October 5, the power sector was consuming around 237 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of RLNG, while fertiliser was using approximately 88 mmcfd and the export and non-export sectors around 175 mmcfd.
Winter Demand Expected to Rise
Officials estimate that Pakistan will require around nine LNG cargoes in December, with demand potentially rising to approximately 11 cargoes in January 2027, traditionally the peak period for winter gas consumption.
The possibility of an extended force majeure by QatarEnergy has therefore raised concerns about Pakistan’s ability to secure sufficient LNG during the critical winter months.
Officials have warned that if the disruption continues from mid-November 2026 through February 2027, the gas supply situation could become increasingly tight.
Under such circumstances, RLNG supplies to major sectors — including power, export-oriented and non-export industries, commercial consumers, general industry, cement and CNG — could face significant restrictions.
System gas would have to be prioritised for domestic consumers, particularly for cooking and other essential household needs.
LPG Demand Could Surge
Officials have also cautioned that consumers currently relying on system gas could increasingly turn to LPG cylinders if the winter supply gap widens.
The expected LNG shortfall could consequently trigger a substantial increase in LPG demand, putting additional pressure on both availability and prices.
The government would therefore need to ensure adequate LPG supplies in the domestic market at affordable prices before the winter shortage becomes acute.
Officials warned that an 11.8kg LPG cylinder could reach Rs7,000 or more in the open market if supply constraints intensify. Open-market prices are already being reported at above Rs5,000, significantly higher than the prices notified by OGRA.
Such an increase would place further pressure on households, particularly in areas where piped gas supplies become inadequate during the winter.
LNG Terminals Ready
On the infrastructure side, officials said the Engro LNG terminal is currently available after the LNG cargo that berthed on September 10 was consumed.
The PGPL terminal is currently regasifying LNG from the cargo that arrived on September 23.
The coming weeks will be critical for Pakistan’s winter energy security as the government weighs the cost of spot LNG, efforts to secure additional supplies and the management of increasingly tight domestic gas availability.
A prolonged disruption in Qatar’s LNG deliveries could place simultaneous pressure on LNG supplies, domestic gas availability and LPG demand, adding to the challenges of managing energy supplies during the approaching winter.
Story by Khalid Mustafa
