The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group recommended on Wednesday that the alliance cut 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production for November, according to various sources after the committee’s meeting ended.
The full OPEC+ ministerial meeting begins shortly.
Earlier reports suggested that OPEC+ would discuss a production cut of between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd at today’s meeting. Most analysts were leaning toward predicting a 1 million bpd cut. Then on Tuesday, more reports emerged that OPEC+ could discuss a cut as deep as 2 million bpd.
Just before the JMMC and OPEC+ meeting started, the most circulated number was a cut of 1.8 million bpd.
The actual cut in OPEC+ production could be much smaller, considering that the alliance is estimated to be around 3.6 million bpd below its target production.
The White House, meanwhile, was reportedly up in arms to try and prevent the potentially major production cut in OPEC+ just a month before midterm elections when the current Administration least needs higher prices at the pump.
Arriving at the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna – the first in-person meeting of the alliance since March 2020 – Suhail Al Mazrouei, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), said that OPEC+ is a “technical organization,” when asked whether the U.S.-UAE relations risk being damaged because of the large proposed cut.
Most officials from the OPEC+ producers said any cut would be a “technical not political decision” and cited a “risk of recession” for cuts as they entered the OPEC headquarters in Vienna.
After rallying on Tuesday, oil prices were mostly flat and undecided on Wednesday as the market expects the final decision and official communication from OPEC+ after the meeting ends. Brent Crude was up 0.32% at $92.00 as of 9:13 a.m. ET. The U.S. benchmark was up by 0.23% at $86.66.