LONDON: The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 while lowering its projection for supply growth from the United States and other non-OPEC+ producers, pointing to a potentially tighter market.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC said it now expects world oil demand to rise by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) next year — an upward revision of 100,000 bpd from its previous estimate — while leaving its 2025 demand outlook unchanged. The group also slightly upgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.0%, citing stronger-than-expected performance in India, China, and Brazil, as well as trade agreements signed by the Trump administration.
OPEC’s demand forecast remains at the higher end of industry projections, contrasting with the International Energy Agency’s view of slower growth due to the energy transition. The report also indicated that US shale (tight oil) output is now expected to fall by 100,000 bpd in 2026, reversing last month’s projection for flat production.
The combination of higher demand and slower non-OPEC+ supply growth could help the group push ahead with plans to increase production and reclaim market share after years of output cuts.
Brent crude remained steady near \$66 a barrel after the report’s release, well above its four-year low of \$58 in April. Analysts note that weaker prices earlier this year, partly driven by OPEC+ supply hikes and concerns over US tariffs, have put pressure on the economics of US shale operations.
By Reuters
