ISLAMABAD: The Power Division has obtained a legal opinion in support of the draft Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35, amid expectations that NEPRA may raise objections over the omission of certain projects previously classified as “committed” in the current IGCEP 2023-27, sources told Business Recorder.
NEPRA has already uploaded the draft IGCEP 2025-35 on its website to seek stakeholder feedback ahead of a public hearing. According to Clause 5(c) of the National Electricity Plan (NE Plan), projects declared committed in IGCEP 2021 (as approved by the Council of Common Interests, CCI) must be retained in subsequent IGCEPs.
However, the latest plan approved by the federal government drops some of those projects, citing lower demand forecasts, lack of progress on milestones, and adverse impacts on affordability, financial viability, and system efficiency.
Projections show a 35,296 GWh demand reduction in FY2024-25, with the decline reaching 66,787 GWh by 2031. The financial impact is estimated at an NPV of $16.89 billion, while consumer tariffs could rise by Rs4.92 per kWh.
The legal opinion, sought by the Integrated System and Market Operator (ISMO), argues that the IGCEP is indicative rather than binding and that no vested rights arise from project classifications. It noted that NEPRA itself excluded 17 projects from the 2022 IGCEP despite previously approving them.
Officials stress that the NE Plan and NE Policy should be interpreted in alignment with IGCEP principles, ensuring sustainability, affordability, financial viability, and cost-effectiveness, in line with CCI’s policy objectives.
Story by Mushtaq Ghumman
