ISLAMABAD: Global energy prices are expected to surge by 24% in 2026, reaching their highest levels since the Russia-Ukraine War, as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt supply chains and commodity markets, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook by the World Bank Group.
The report forecasts an overall 16% rise in global commodity prices, driven by sharp increases in energy, fertilisers, and key metals. Brent crude is projected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, up significantly from $69 in 2025, following major supply shocks linked to attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 35% of global seaborne oil trade.
Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned that the crisis will unfold in waves—raising energy costs, food prices, and inflation—placing severe pressure on developing economies. Fertiliser prices are projected to jump 31%, led by a 60% spike in urea, threatening food security and farm incomes.
The report cautions that prolonged conflict could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity, while inflation in developing countries may rise to 5.1% in 2026, further weakening economic growth.
Story by Khaleeq Kiani
