KARACHI: Pakistan’s electricity generation mix is undergoing a significant structural shift, with fossil fuel dependence declining while nuclear power and rapidly expanding solar capacity reshape the country’s energy landscape, according to an analysis shared on X by independent energy analyst Chris Meder on Tuesday.
The analysis shows that the share of fossil fuels in Pakistan’s power generation has fallen to around 44% from approximately 66% over the past two decades, reflecting a gradual diversification of the energy mix. Over the same period, nuclear power has increased sharply to nearly 17%, up from about 2% in 2000.
Hydropower continues to play a stabilising role in the national grid, contributing roughly 30% of total electricity generation. Meanwhile, wind and solar energy have also increased their share, although their impact is more pronounced in distributed and off-grid systems.
The most notable disruption, however, is being driven by solar energy, particularly decentralised rooftop installations that are not fully captured in official generation statistics.
The analysis notes that Pakistan’s solar expansion has been driven largely by economic factors rather than policy incentives, including rising electricity tariffs, unreliable grid supply, and falling global prices of imported solar equipment.
According to the data cited, Pakistan imported an estimated 51.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels by late 2025—nearly equivalent to the country’s total installed grid capacity—while officially registered net-metered rooftop solar capacity remains significantly lower at around 5.3 GW to 6.8 GW.
This gap suggests a large volume of “behind-the-meter” solar generation operating across homes, farms, factories, and commercial facilities that is not reflected in official statistics.
The report estimates that Pakistan imported around 16.6–17 GW of solar equipment in 2024 and a further 18 GW in 2025. Rooftop solar installations alone are believed to have grown from about 1.3 GW to over 4 GW during 2024, while unregistered or off-grid systems may now exceed 24 GW.
The analysis further suggests that, when distributed and off-grid generation is included, solar power could already account for roughly one-quarter of Pakistan’s actual electricity consumption.
It highlights a dual-track energy transition: large-scale nuclear expansion through centrally planned projects, alongside rapid, consumer-driven adoption of rooftop solar systems.
“They’re not competing. They’re stacking,” the analyst noted, referring to the parallel growth of nuclear and distributed solar energy.
Hydropower continues to serve as a balancing source for the grid, while fossil fuels remain a major component despite their declining share.
The report concludes that financial pressures, high electricity costs, and supply constraints are driving an uncoordinated but rapid transformation of Pakistan’s power sector, with rooftop solar emerging as one of the most influential forces reshaping long-term energy demand patterns.
