Pakistan can harness its growth in rooftop solar through decentralised, community-driven “swarm grids”, but regulatory reform remains the key missing link between technical feasibility and large-scale deployment, according to a new study.
The Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED) on Thursday launched a techno-economic assessment of swarm electrification attended by policymakers, regulators, energy experts and civil society representatives.
The research comprises two publications: Harnessing Pakistan’s Solar Revolution: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Swarm Electrification, which examines the feasibility of swarm grids in urban and rural settings, and Swarm Grids: The Next Phase of the Solar Boom, which proposes a transition agenda and implementation roadmap.
Pakistan’s solar expansion has largely been driven by households, farmers and businesses seeking reliable and affordable electricity rather than by government policy.
According to the study, more than 50 gigawatts of solar panels have been imported against around 41GW of installed generation capacity nationwide.
Despite the rapid expansion of distributed solar, however, blackouts, brownouts and prolonged load-shedding continue in many areas.
The study argues that the central problem is increasingly one of coordination rather than generation capacity. Millions of rooftop solar systems operate as isolated assets instead of being integrated into a coordinated electricity resource.
PRIED defines a swarm grid as a digitally coordinated, decentralised local electricity network through which households and businesses can consume their own solar power, store electricity, sell surplus electricity to neighbours and purchase power from nearby prosumers, while using the national grid primarily as a backup.
Unlike conventional microgrids, which generally operate within fixed boundaries, swarm grids can allow households and clusters to join, leave or trade electricity dynamically.
The researchers tested the concept against two contrasting settings: Islamabad as an urban case, with relatively dense and diverse demand on an established grid, and Tharparkar in Sindh as a rural case characterised by dispersed communities and seasonal agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.
The assessment used household surveys, solar-resource data and an hourly dispatch model to examine the technical, economic and institutional feasibility of the model, as well as the willingness of communities to participate.
The study found that swarm grids are technically feasible in both urban and rural areas, although their economic models would differ.
Urban swarm grids could potentially operate as commercially viable, privately financed businesses, while rural projects would require targeted upfront investment and community capacity-building because of higher initial costs and lower energy density.
The research identified the regulatory framework as the most significant common obstacle.
Under the existing system, peer-to-peer electricity trading and third-party sales within the territory of a distribution company are restricted. The study says new regulations would be required to determine who can sell electricity, at what price and through what settlement mechanism.
Without such changes, it argues, swarm grids are unlikely to progress from feasibility studies to large-scale commercial deployment.
The second publication proposes short-, medium- and long-term measures for regulators, including the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO), distribution companies, provincial governments and development finance institutions.
The recommendations include introducing regulations for peer-to-peer electricity trading, standardising solar equipment connected to distribution networks, opening the retail electricity market under the Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM), and launching urban and rural pilot projects.
The transition plan also proposes measures aimed at making the shift more inclusive for women. These include allowing solar assets to be registered in the name of either spouse by default, ensuring women are included in installation and handover processes, and supporting women-led operations and maintenance teams.
