WASHINGTON: Global commodity prices are projected to rise 23 per cent in 2026 amid the Middle East conflict, energy supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The bank said energy prices had surged 32 per cent this year, reaching their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92 per barrel in 2026, while global oil supply is expected to decline 5.2 per cent, marking the steepest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
The report warned that further escalation of the Middle East conflict and continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push prices even higher. Commodity prices are projected to fall 7 per cent in 2027, although persistent supply disruptions and adverse weather conditions could keep inflationary pressures elevated.
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose said simultaneous shocks to energy markets and global trade were increasing the risk of inflation, food insecurity and slower economic growth.
Food commodity prices are expected to increase by more than 10 per cent in 2026, followed by a further rise of over 7 per cent in 2027. Disruptions to grain shipments in the Black Sea and the potential impact of a severe El Niño weather pattern could intensify food price pressures.
Under an adverse scenario involving escalating conflicts, continued oil infrastructure damage and severe weather, food prices could rise 12 per cent above current projections. The bank warned that such a development could trigger a major food crisis, similar to the one in the early 2010s that pushed more than 40 million additional people into extreme poverty.
Fertiliser prices are forecast to rise 14 per cent in 2026, driven by higher urea prices, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metal prices are projected to increase 25 per cent this year, reaching record highs as supply disruptions coincide with growing demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. Aluminium, copper and tin are among the metals expected to set new records.
Precious metal prices are forecast to surge 40 per cent in 2026 as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty, although some moderation is expected next year.
The World Bank said depleted global oil inventories had left the world economy more vulnerable to further supply shocks. It has provided $8.7 billion in concessional financing and other assistance to 25 countries adversely affected by the Middle East conflict, helping governments address the economic and social consequences of rising costs.
