KARACHI: Pakistan is seeking at least 24 cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and spot market for the coming winter season, according to official documents seen by Arab News on Tuesday, as the Middle East war poses the risk of gas shortages in the country.
Pakistan relies heavily on imported LNG to meet demand from its power, industrial and domestic sectors, and normally receives an average of nine cargoes a month from Qatar under long-term government-to-government agreements.
But supplies have been severely disrupted since March, when QatarEnergy first declared force majeure after an Iranian attack on a major gas facility. Qatar, among the LNG producers hardest hit by the US-Iran conflict that erupted in February, has seen its export capacity severely curtailed from pre-conflict levels.
Pakistan’s Petroleum Division has proposed a gas load management plan from Nov. till Feb., which envisages securing contingency supplies if disruptions to existing contracts persist. The plan awaits approval from the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE).
“The Petroleum Division has estimated that 24 LNG cargoes would be required to meet winter demand across the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) network,” read a Petroleum Division summary submitted to the CCoE.
“The proposed plan also envisages additional LNG procurement arrangements as uncertainty persists over supplies under existing contracts with Qatar Energy.”
Under the plan, nine LNG cargoes would be allocated to the power sector for electricity generation, while 15 would be used for domestic consumption, including two contingency cargoes.
The plan highlights Pakistan’s vulnerability to disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies as the conflict threatens shipments and forces the South Asian country to consider expensive spot-market purchases to meet demand during peak winter months.
“During this period (Nov. to Feb.), the government will import 12 LNG cargoes from Qatar, whereas 10 LNG consignments will be bought from the spot market,” the document said.
The government is expected to spend more than $1 billion on LNG purchases this winter, according to the document.
Islamabad is set to buy 10 LNG cargoes from the spot market “at double the price at which LNG is being imported from Qatar,” according to the document.
’FINAL RESORT’
Reached for comment, a senior official at Pakistan’s energy ministry said the spot market would be considered as a last resort, given the high prices.
“We might get some [spot] cargoes. As a final resort, spot market would be explored,” the official told Arab News, seeking anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
He estimated that a single spot-market cargo could cost between $80 million and $100 million at current prices, compared with as much as $50 million for a shipment under Pakistan’s long-term contract with Qatar Energy.
“The spot market rates range between $30 to $35 per mmbtu (one million British thermal units) while from Qatar contract, it is $12 to $15 per mmbtu,” the official said.
Pakistan’s reliance on imported energy also leaves its external finances exposed to higher global prices. The country imported $16.9 billion worth of petroleum products last year, 6 percent more than in the preceding year, according to official data.
However, LNG imports declined more than 28 percent to $364.1 million in July-August of fiscal year 2026-27, from $507.9 million during the same period a year earlier, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports rose 15 percent to $176.8 million from $154.1 million.
In the last fiscal year, LNG imports fell 36 percent to $2.22 billion, while LPG imports rose 3.2 percent to $1.09 billion.
The official document showed the proposed load management plan prioritizes domestic consumers in the event of a “severe shortage” or failure to secure the required LNG cargoes. Supplies to industry, captive power plants, fertilizer producers and compressed natural gas (CNG) stations could be curtailed.
The plan’s implementation will be critical to limiting winter gas shortages for households and businesses, when heating demand rises and competing requirements for fuel put additional pressure on Pakistan’s energy system.
Muhammad Waqas Ghani, head of research at market research firm JS Global Capital, said Pakistan would likely have to rely more heavily on spot-market LNG and alternative sources to bridge the winter supply gap.
“But high global prices and tight availability would make the approach expensive,” he warned.
Asked whether higher LNG import costs could affect Pakistan’s balance of payments, Ghani said: “Yes, higher import bill would widen the current account deficit.”
