KARACHI: Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) has expressed serious concern over the recurrence of electricity load management despite the country having an installed generation capacity of 49,651MW, saying the latest disruption caused by the shortage of RLNG exposes fundamental weaknesses in power-sector planning, fuel security and capacity utilisation.
Chief Organiser of PBF, Ahmad Jawad, said business community questioned how consumers can continue to face prolonged power outages while simultaneously paying fixed charges and capacity-related costs associated with the country’s power-generation infrastructure.
The Power Division has attributed the latest nighttime load management primarily to the non-availability of RLNG and delayed arrival of an LNG cargo, saying the situation reduced available generation by around 3,600MW.
Generation from Mangla also declined by 195MW, while furnace-oil plants were brought into operation during peak hours. The ministry said the temporary load management would be reduced once RLNG cargoes arrive.
PBF said the explanation raises a fundamental question: why does a power system with almost 50,000MW of installed capacity remain so vulnerable to the disruption of a relatively small component of its fuel mix?
Pakistan’s installed generation capacity reached 49,651MW by March 2026, an increase of 8.5pc from 45,782MW a year earlier, with the addition of 7,319MW through solar net metering playing a major role. At the same time, 13 commissioned IPPs with a combined capacity of 5,105MW were reported closed.
“This is no longer simply a question of generation capacity. It is a question of capacity utilisation, fuel security, dispatch planning and the economic cost of keeping capacity available without ensuring reliable electricity supply,” PBF said.
The forum said consumers were being confronted with a particularly difficult contradiction: they are paying fixed and capacity-related charges, yet a disruption in RLNG availability can still result in power shortages. If consumers are paying for capacity, the system must explain what exactly they are paying for and why that capacity cannot provide reliable electricity when required.
The latest episode has also exposed the cost of dependence on expensive imported LNG.
In July, RLNG contributed only around 11pc of total grid generation, yet the cost of RLNG-based electricity surged to approximately Rs47.4 per unit, up a record 242pc from less than Rs14 per unit in April. Five expensive spot-market cargoes were procured after disruption in supplies from Qatar. Power companies consequently sought a Rs2.52 per unit positive FCA, amounting to approximately Rs36.54bn, for recovery from consumers in September bills.
PBF said it was not arguing that RLNG should never be used. Rather, the question was whether the expensive RLNG generation was unavoidable, efficiently procured and properly dispatched, particularly when a large share of July’s generation came from lower-cost sources.
The July generation data make the question more important. Total generation stood at 15,122GWh, with hydropower alone contributing 6,019GWh, or nearly 40pc. RLNG contributed 1,629GWh, or about 10.8pc.
“Consumers cannot be expected to repeatedly absorb the consequences of fuel-price volatility, procurement failures or inadequate contingency planning,” PBF said.
The forum also expressed concern over the renewed deterioration in the power-sector circular debt.
Gross circular-debt flow reached Rs364bn during FY2025-26, around 709pc higher than the previous year’s Rs45bn, despite substantial government support. The Power Division has acknowledged the Rs364bn figure while attributing the increase to factors including K-Electric’s payment shortfall, lower-than-planned subsidy releases and other adjustments.
PBF said the debate should move beyond the recurring practice of assigning responsibility to another institution.
“There is a fundamental principle of energy planning: unforeseen events are not a surprise to planners; they are a risk that must be planned for.”
PBF further stressed that Pakistan’s rising distributed solar capacity was changing the country’s electricity-demand profile. The 49,651MW installed-capacity figure includes 7,319MW added through net metering, demonstrating that consumers themselves are increasingly investing in alternative generation to escape high grid tariffs.
