When President Biden appeared in Poland yesterday, he said that the Russian leadership could not remain in power if it continued to brutalize Ukraine. To this end, the global economic sanctions are meant to isolate President Putin not just from the civilized world but also from his people. What’s more likely is that Russia will get gradually elbowed out of the global energy supply chain.
Russia’s economy centers on the sale of oil and natural gas. The country is also a supplier of nuclear energy technologies and the uranium to run those power plants. Pulling the plug will be hard. But it can be jostled loose over a few years. The United States, Australia, and Qatar can supply natural gas while the Middle Eastern oil producers are always looking for new markets. Meantime, Australia, Canada, Nambia, and Niger can replace the uranium.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a transformational turning point in global affairs, and the tectonic plates are shifting both economically and politically,” says Lori Esposito Murray, president of Economic Development for The Conference Board. “The world that emerges out of this crisis will be markedly different from the world order that preceded it. Even if Russia wins the Ukraine battle, it will lose the war because sanctions will not be lifted without a diplomatic resolution or regime change.