KARACHI: Petrol prices are expected to rise by Rs4.75 per litre in the upcoming fortnightly pricing review, while high-speed diesel (HSD) is likely to remain largely unchanged, provided the government does not impose any additional petroleum levy.
According to the latest internal calculations by the oil industry, petrol prices are projected to increase mainly due to higher international gasoline prices, whereas policy adjustments have helped offset a significant rise in global diesel rates.
For petrol (PMG), the ex-refinery price is estimated to increase from Rs270.03 per litre to Rs274.77 per litre, reflecting a rise of Rs4.75. The increase is primarily driven by a higher international Free on Board (FOB) price, which climbed from $139.03 to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.
Although slight reductions in premiums and incidental costs provided some relief, they were not sufficient to neutralise the overall increase. The removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil (PSO) adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre also contributed to the projected rise in petrol prices.
In contrast, HSD prices are expected to increase marginally by only Rs0.20 per litre, from Rs334.74 to Rs334.93. Despite a sharp increase in the international FOB price of diesel — from $160.41 to $172.99 per barrel — the impact was largely offset by a substantial reduction in customs duty and incidental costs.
Industry sources said customs duty on HSD declined by more than Rs20 per litre, playing a critical role in stabilising the final diesel price for consumers.
The exchange rate remained relatively stable during the pricing review period at around Rs278.9 per US dollar, limiting the impact of currency fluctuations on petroleum pricing.
Oil industry officials noted that petrol consumers are likely to face the immediate impact of rising global gasoline prices, while diesel users may benefit from policy measures that have cushioned the effect of international market volatility.
They added that the final consumer prices will depend on the government’s decisions regarding taxes, petroleum levy adjustments and any changes in the exchange rate before the official notification is issued.
Story by Tanveer Malik
