Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has warned that rising geopolitical tensions, growing energy demand, and increasing fossil fuel market volatility are accelerating a new phase of the global energy transition focused on electrification, renewable energy expansion, and a faster shift away from fossil fuels.
In its latest report, “Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels: A Roadmap Based on Renewables, Electrification and Grid Enhancement,” released in collaboration with the Brazilian COP30 Presidency ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, IRENA stated that current global energy systems remain structurally unprepared to meet the 1.5°C climate target under the Paris Agreement.
The report emphasizes that while the global targets of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 remain critical, they alone will not be sufficient to achieve a successful energy transition.
According to IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario in the upcoming World Energy Transition Outlook, electricity’s share in global energy consumption is projected to rise from 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035 and exceed 50 percent by 2050, with most of the growing demand expected to be met through renewable energy sources. At the same time, the share of fossil fuels in global energy systems is projected to decline from 80 percent today to around 50 percent by 2035 and less than 20 percent by 2050.
Francesco La Camera said the world must adapt to a new energy reality where electrification and fossil fuel phase-out advance together.
“Beyond the goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency lies the broader challenge of transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel dependence across supply and demand,” he said.
La Camera noted that renewable-powered electrification supports multiple policy objectives, including climate mitigation, energy security, and economic competitiveness through the creation of new industrial value chains and innovation opportunities. He added that affordable renewable electricity can also help reduce costs for households and industries.
The report identifies electrification as the main structural driver behind the decline in fossil fuel use across transportation, industry, buildings, and digital sectors. However, IRENA stressed that achieving this transition will require major investments in power grids, energy storage systems, and infrastructure flexibility to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supply.
Infrastructure limitations have emerged as a major bottleneck, with nearly 2,500 gigawatts of wind and solar projects currently awaiting grid connections globally. IRENA estimates that annual grid investment requirements must increase to around USD 1.2 trillion, more than double the USD 0.5 trillion invested in 2025.
The agency also highlighted the need for substantial investments in hydrogen, alternative fuels, EV charging infrastructure, building retrofits, electric heating and cooling systems, and industrial electrification technologies.
La Camera said the pace of fossil fuel phase-out would ultimately depend on how quickly economies adopt electrification and renewable technologies.
“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs a clear global direction,” he said, adding that IRENA supports the establishment of a global electrification target for 2035 alongside targets for grids and system flexibility.
The report also underlined the importance of monitoring global progress on electrification, grid enhancement, and fossil fuel reduction to strengthen international cooperation and policy implementation.
At COP28, the UAE Consensus and the First Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement called for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, while also laying the foundation for the global transition away from fossil fuels.
IRENA said it will continue supporting international climate and energy discussions leading up to COP31 in Antalya through analysis, partnerships, and country engagement initiatives.
