KARACHI: Pakistan remains one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries despite contributing only a minimal share to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to a detailed report released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its half-yearly economic review.
The report noted that climatic disasters in Pakistan during 2000-2024 were significantly higher than both global and regional averages, continuing a trend observed over the previous two decades.
The SBP highlighted the country’s difficult balancing act of pursuing economic growth while simultaneously reducing its emission intensity.
“Pakistan faces a particularly challenging position. On the one hand, it is among the most climate-vulnerable countries despite contributing very little to global GHG emissions. On the other hand, it needs to expand its economy and increase GDP growth while reducing emission intensity,” the report stated.
Citing World Bank estimates, the report warned that Pakistan’s GDP could shrink by 4.5 to 6.5 per cent by 2050 under an optimistic climate scenario, while losses could rise to 7 to 9 per cent under a pessimistic outlook. Agriculture and industry are expected to be the hardest-hit sectors.
“Without timely climate action, the output of both sectors could decline by up to 17pc by 2050,” the report warned.
Globally, more than 9,700 climatic events between 1995 and 2024 caused direct economic losses of nearly $4.5 trillion, affecting 5.7 billion people and resulting in over 832,000 deaths.
According to the report, Pakistan ranked as the 15th most affected country worldwide during this period.
The SBP also pointed to increasing signs of climate stress in Pakistan, including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, sea-level rise, and accelerated glacial melting. It noted that climate-related damages can intensify when multiple factors overlap, such as heatwaves followed by heavy rainfall and glacial melt.
While the top 10 GHG-emitting countries account for nearly 70pc of global emissions, Pakistan contributes only around 1pc. The country’s per capita emissions remain low, ranking 147th globally.
However, Pakistan’s emission intensity — measured by emissions per unit of GDP — remains relatively high. Pakistan ranks 20th globally in GHG emissions despite standing 45th in terms of nominal GDP.
The report said emissions have risen sharply since the 1960s, mainly driven by the energy and agriculture sectors. Population growth, rising incomes, and dependence on carbon-intensive energy sources continue to increase CO2 emissions.
Under the Paris Agreement, Pakistan has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 50pc by 2035 compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario.
To support climate mitigation efforts, Pakistan has launched initiatives including the 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Programme, mangrove restoration projects, and renewable energy expansion.
The report also highlighted Pakistan’s rapid progress in rooftop solar adoption, noting that solar capacity expanded nearly twentyfold between 2022 and 2024.
According to IMF estimates cited in the report, climate disasters caused economic losses of approximately $29.3 billion to Pakistan between 1992 and 2021, while the devastating 2022 floods alone inflicted damages worth nearly $28bn.
Story by Shahid Iqbal
