ISLAMABAD: The Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has initiated work on the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2027, seeking project-specific data from provincial governments and other relevant stakeholders by September 14, 2026, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.
The development comes despite the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) yet to formally notify IGCEP 2025-35, which is required to undergo annual review under the Grid Code.
According to an official communication circulated among provincial governments and other stakeholders, ISMO has launched the data collection exercise for the next iteration of the IGCEP, covering a 10-year planning horizon from 2027 to 2037.
Under Clause PC 4.2.1 of the Grid Code, the exercise will cover all existing and potential thermal, hydropower, renewable and hybrid power projects, including those based on emerging and new technologies.
“This is a highly important exercise with strategic and long-term implications for the country’s future energy mix,” ISMO stated, stressing that accurate, comprehensive, realistic and timely inputs from all relevant entities were essential for preparing a robust and reliable generation capacity expansion plan.
ISMO has directed stakeholders to provide project-specific information for all existing and potential thermal, hydro, renewable and hybrid projects under their jurisdiction through prescribed proformas. The completed proformas are required to be submitted by September 14, 2026.
Sources said the exercise is being undertaken even though IGCEP 2025-35 has not yet been formally notified by Nepra. The regulator had raised several questions concerning the proposed plan on May 7, 2026.
According to IGCEP 2025-35, Pakistan’s installed generation capacity was projected to increase by around 49 percent, from 43,069 MW in 2024 to 64,035 MW by 2035.
The proposed plan has also faced controversy over the exclusion and treatment of certain hydropower projects. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has approached the courts against the exclusion of some of its hydel projects from IGCEP 2025-35.
Changing demand patterns add complexity
The latest planning exercise is being undertaken against the backdrop of significant changes in electricity demand patterns.
According to the federal government, country-level and spatial load forecasts remained broadly consistent between TSEP 2024-34 and IGCEP 2025-35. However, distribution companies have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected electricity consumption.
The National Grid Company (NGC) attributed the decline primarily to the economic slowdown and the rapid expansion of net-metering and rooftop solar generation.
The long-term planner, however, considers the decline to be temporary and has maintained that it is not sufficient at this stage to alter long-term transmission expansion decisions. The trend will be closely monitored, with adjustments to future plans possible if the decline persists.
Major hydropower projects face delays
A comparison of IGCEP 2025-35 with the previous IGCEP 2024-34 also shows substantial changes in the expected commissioning schedules of major hydropower projects.
The commercial operation dates (CODs) of major projects, including the 2,160 MW Dasu Hydropower Project, 800 MW Mohmand Hydropower Project and 4,500 MW Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project, have been delayed under the revised planning scenarios.
In the June 2027 scenario, revisions reflect delays in the Dasu and Mohmand hydropower projects. Earlier projections had included three 360 MW units of Dasu and all four 200 MW units of Mohmand.
Under the revised scenario, only one 360 MW unit of Dasu has been considered, while Mohmand makes no contribution.
Similarly, the June 2029 scenario was revised because of delays in the Diamer Bhasha project. Earlier assumptions included five units, each with a capacity of 375 MW, but the updated scenario makes no contribution from Diamer Bhasha at that stage.
For the July-August 2034 peak scenario, aligned with the updated 2034-35 planning horizon, all 12 units of Diamer Bhasha, each with a capacity of 375 MW, have been considered.
The scenario also includes around 1,400 MW of wind power optimised under IGCEP. Of this, 800 MW and 500 MW wind projects have been assumed to be accommodated within the existing networks of QESCO and Jhimpir, respectively, without requiring additional network reinforcement.
269MW Dhabeji hybrid project included
Meanwhile, Nepra has recently issued Addendum-II to the IGCEP 2025-35 proceedings, stating that ISMO has agreed to include the 269 MW hybrid Dhabeji project of JCM Canada as an optimised project following the re-simulation of IGCEP 2025 based on revised project data.
The inclusion reflects the continuing process of updating and refining the generation expansion plan in light of revised project information.
Officials said the initiation of data collection for IGCEP 2027 would give ISMO an opportunity to incorporate updated demand trends, project timelines, renewable energy penetration, distributed generation and emerging technologies into the country’s next generation expansion roadmap.
The exercise assumes added significance as Pakistan’s power sector undergoes structural changes driven by the rapid growth of rooftop solar and net-metering, shifting electricity consumption patterns, delays in major hydropower projects and increasing emphasis on renewable and hybrid generation.
ISMO has therefore stressed that the timely submission of complete, accurate, realistic and project-specific information by all stakeholders will be critical to the successful preparation of IGCEP 2027.
Story By Mushtaq Ghumman
