The Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has initiated work on the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2027, seeking project-specific data from provinces and other relevant entities by September 14, 2026.
Business Recorder reported that the new plan will cover a 10-year planning horizon from 2027 to 2037 and comes despite the IGCEP 2025-35 still awaiting formal notification by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra).
ISMO has sought data on existing and potential thermal, hydropower, renewable and hybrid power plants, including projects based on emerging and new technologies.
“This is a highly important exercise with strategic and long-term implications for the country’s future energy mix,” ISMO said, stressing the need for accurate, comprehensive, realistic and timely information from power-sector entities.
The exercise begins as the previous IGCEP remains under regulatory consideration. Nepra had raised several questions regarding the proposed IGCEP 2025-35 on May 7, 2026.
Under that plan, Pakistan’s installed generation capacity was projected to increase around 49% from 43,069MW in 2024 to 64,035MW by 2035.
The IGCEP 2025-35 has also faced controversy over the treatment and exclusion of certain hydropower projects, with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government approaching the court against the exclusion of some of its hydel projects.
The next planning exercise will also have to account for changing electricity demand patterns. Distribution companies have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected electricity consumption, which the National Grid Company attributed primarily to the economic slowdown and rapid expansion of net-metering and rooftop solar generation.
The long-term planner has so far treated the decline as temporary and insufficient to alter long-term transmission expansion decisions, while maintaining that future plans could be adjusted if the trend persists.
Changes in project timelines have also affected generation planning. Compared with IGCEP 2024-34, the proposed IGCEP 2025-35 incorporates delays in major hydropower projects, including the 2,160MW Dasu, 800MW Mohmand and 4,500MW Diamer Bhasha projects.
For the June 2027 scenario, the revised plan considers only one 360MW unit of Dasu and no contribution from Mohmand, compared with earlier assumptions of three Dasu units and all four 200MW Mohmand units.
Similarly, Diamer Bhasha makes no contribution in the revised June 2029 scenario, compared with an earlier assumption that five 375MW units would be available. All 12 units of the project are considered in the July/August 2034 peak scenario.
Meanwhile, Nepra recently issued Addendum-II to the IGCEP 2025-35 proceedings, stating that ISMO had agreed to include JCM Canada’s 269MW hybrid Dhabeji project as an optimised project following a re-simulation based on revised project data.
ISMO’s latest exercise is expected to incorporate updated demand trends, project timelines, renewable energy penetration, distributed generation and emerging technologies into the 2027-37 generation expansion plan.
